Sunday, December 14, 2014

Playing against OPPONENTS, or playing WITH logic?

So the blog comes back to life, with this article.

I hope to write once a week, going forward.

This is a hand from the annual Ubhaykar memorial BAM team event. My team came tied for 4th in the event with 64 Matchpoints on a 54 average(where 4 places pay): but sadly, we got nudged 'out  of the money' by the tie-breaking rule. So "effectively" 5th.

I GOT high praise from a Pro for my play on that hand.

There is a fair bit of background to the hand, so I'll put up the background, and the hand here. Will go over what happened, what I did right, why the pro praised my play and...why the play I made was actually a POOR play at the end (even though I had made every move perfectly until then...I just could have done 1 better than I did...for the same result).

Here's the background, first. This was a BAM teams event. I've always played 1-0.5-0 BAM teams. If you watch the pros on Vugraph (Example: the recent Reisinger BAM teams), the scoring is 1-0.5-0 (1 for a win, 0.5 for a tie, and 0 for a loss). 430 (3 NT+1) beats 420 (4 of a Major making).

The BAM format of course, is Matchpoints on Steroids. I have never been a fan of BAM teams. But this one was not actually BAM. though the event was NAMED a BAM: it was a hybrid.

Of course, if you read this far, you're familiar with IMP scoring. Here is the "BAM hybrid" scoring method:

1.Instead of ONE Matchpoint per board (which would have gone 1-0.5-0 as described already), there are SIX matchpoints per board (thus, 3 is average, instead of 0.5).
2.0-10 points difference is 3-3 (this takes out the crazy 3 NTs avoiding 4 of a major)
3.20-50 points difference is 4-2.
4.60-190 points difference is 5-1
5.200+ is 6-0

Apparently, this is a popular BAM hybrid. Was surprised that with 20 years of Bridge playing experience, I had never encountered this before.

So, with this backdrop, to the hand versus the Pro (Priyaranjan Sinha)

A mundane auction: 1 NT pass 3 NT all pass.

PRS leads the Spade Ten.

Dummy:
S:KJx
H:KJx
D:JT6
C:K9xx

Hand:
S:AQx
H:A9xx
D:A8xx
C:Qx

3 top spades, 2 top hearts, 1 diamond, 1 club that can be quickly developed. Clearly, there's work to do.

Note that as the cards lie, there are 10 tricks available with this lead. The challenge is to find a SOLID, SECURE path to those 10 tricks.

I'll post what happened to the first few tricks as a problem/teaser: scroll down for the complete analysis.

I put in the Jack of spade: I figured diamonds were the most obvious suit to develop (clubs can certainly wait, and H finesse is take-able any time, it's not number 1 priority).
So I led the Jack of diamond: King, Ace, small.

Diamond back towards the dummy, small from PRS, Ten, 9 from PRS's partner.

So the trick count can be updated now: 2 diamond tricks scored, so we are now at 8 tricks (including the ready-to-develop club trick). The diamond spots have some useful clues, but I'll leave it to you to decipher the clues, and find 10 tricks.

After the ten of diamond, I crossed to hand with the Spade Queen, and finessed the JH (I expected the finesse to lose: again, this was based on inferences I made, and those inferences are critical to finding tricks 9, 10).

As expected, the JH lost to the Queen, of PRS's partner. After a substantial think, back came a club from PRS's partner.

Without hesitation, I put up the Queen of club. It won, PRS hesitated before following suit low to the club.

So how do you go about finding trick 9, trick 10 from here?























Here is the reasoning behind "my expectation", the basis of everything on this hand.

When the 9D falls, PRS is marked with Q7 of diamond (unless his partner is making a deep psychological play, which makes no logical sense: with K97, he can duck JD and  ensure a D trick for himself when his partner has a D honor, and in all other cases it doesn't matter).

Thus, LHO started with 4 diamonds to RHO's 2.

11 free slots for hearts with RHO, 9 with LHO.

Odds are 11:9 that any heart, specifically the ten, specifically the Q, is with RHO.

Hence the expectation that JH loses.

The reason for the "speed of lightning" play in club (going up with QC with lightning speed), I'll come back to eventually.

After the QC wins, the idea is, play heart to the Ace (which will pick up Tx with PRS). Then, when TH doesn't fall, lead  a 3rd H, finessing the 9.

The odds of 4-2 aren't strictly the same as the odds of finding RHO with a specific H.

But those original odds haven't bent back in favor of parity, so the % play is the 9H finesse.

Finesse holds, PRS pitching a spade. We're up to 9 tricks. Where to go for trick 10, now?

(Again, scroll down once you're done thinking).
































The Q7 of D with PRS is a "FROZEN SUIT". Eric Rodwell writes in depth about this concept in "The Rodwell Files". Do give it a read if you manage to get access to a copy.

PRS can't pitch D. He knows I have 8x, I know he has Q7. It's a "standoff" in the suit. This position is the source of trick 10.

After AH, simply cash AH (PRS pitches another spade). I pitch club in dummy (put a bookmark against this decision, we'll return to it later. This too, is related to the earlier "speed of lightning" play in club).

The appearance of 2 spades in discards make it obvious to cash Ace of Spade (a Dentist's coup concept: removing the safe exit from opponent's hand).

RHO (PRS's partner) pitches a club.

3 tricks left, this is the position (our side has scored 3 spades, 3 hearts, 2 diamonds and 1 club. The contract is home).
Dummy:
D:6
C:K9

Hand:
D:8x
C:x

PRS, playing in front of dummy has:
D:Q7
C:?

I lead a club, and....PRS shows up with the Jack. I duck, and he's endplayed (his partner cannot gainfully overtake the JC, as he has only ATx club left).

The praise I got was, as I mentioned up front, a touch undeserved.

Certainly, credit was due for figuring out that PRS had Q7 of diamond left. But really, most experienced players get this far, and this isn't an excuse for the error I alluded to but have not yet specified.

In the post-mortem, PRS admitted that he "knew he should have unblocked, but (wrongly) reasoned that he would have a chance to pitch JC (as he felt he should have, on the hearts).

And it was then that it dawned upon me: I could have done even better than I did. Have you spotted it yet? Surely you have!

I had no reason to keep the diamond six in dummy. I was always going to end in hand when I finished cashing the hearts and the spade Ace.

The end position SHOULD have been:
Dummy:
D:-
C:K9x

Hand:
D:8x
C:x

PRS:
S:9/-
D:Q7
C:-/Does_Not_Matter
(PRS either keeps the spade 9 or A club, and it doesn't matter which of the two he does, or, for that matter, if he unblocks the JC; If he does, I insert the club 9 in dummy, and PRS's partner is endplayed with AT8 club to surrender a trick to the KC in dummy).

I had a chance to make 100% certain of trick 10. I failed, and merely got lucky that my read on my opponent's hesitation turned out to be accurate.

The full hand record, as the cards were dealt:
Dlr/Vul South / NS


North

s K J 2

h K J 2

d J 10 6

c K 9 6 2
WestIEast
s 10 9 8 6 5s 7 3
h 4 3h Q 10 8 7
d Q 7 4 3d K 9
c J 5c A 10 8 7 3

South

s A Q 4

h A 9 6 5

d A 8 5 2

c Q 4


Note that had he thrown JC, I would have woken up and tossed the 6D as well (on the Ace of H), as I should have ANYWAY. I was lulled into complacency, by my read of his body language.

The other table also made 10 tricks in 3 NT, so we got a 3-3 score (it would have been a 4-2 loss had I not found trick 10). More than half of the field appeared to not find the 10th trick, however.

Well, I hope that was an exciting, entertaining return to life of my blog :-).

See you next week. Feel free to pontificate.