I'll start this narration with a war adage I read in an Agatha Christie novel (N or M, for those interested):
"There's time to recriminate after the war, but not during the war."
In order to not lead you in any direction, I'll give you the problem as I faced it.
This was the below hand I played on BBO
http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?myhand=M-29858071-1324059618
I opened 1 NT, partner transferred me to spade and I super-accepted. Partner dutifully raised to game, and I got the lead of Ace, King and a 3rd round of club.
Dummy:
S:JT865
H:Q64
D:K
C:Q542
Hand:
S:AK7
H:A98
D:AQ865
C:76
How do you assess prospects? What would be the skeleton of your plan?
The skeleton of the plan would start with your action right now. You could try to win the QC, or try to ruff the club first and worry about the rest later.
Say you duck the club, Righty pitches a heart and you ruff. What now?
As the cards lay, you can no doubt make the hand. One of the many ways to make the hand is to unblock the KD, then lay down AK spade, and when all follow, take your 2 pitches on the AQD, pitching hearts. The opponent with QS can ruff and all's well.
But how would this work if spades were 4-1?
Someone would be left with Q9 spade. Further, they could decline to ruff the 3rd round of diamond, or ruff with the 9.
You could take the heart pitch (if they dont ruff), play ace of heart and ruff a heart. But from there you're toast.
2 trumps left, and the opponent with Q9 can win a trump lead and force out the last trump with a heart. You'd end up losing the spade 9 as well, to go with AKC and QS.
So the main threat to guard against is the 4-1 break.
Alternatively, if they ruffed with the 9, if you pitch Heart, 9S together with the QS would be the setting trick. So you'll need to overruff, and dummy will still have Q9 of heart and no apparent way to get rid of the heart loser. The closest you could try is to cash the club Queen pitching diamond, and then throwing Lefty in with the spade Queen. But if clubs are 5-2, he'd put you back on dummy with a club forcing a ruff, and you'll be stuck with the losing heart.
It is not clear what 4-1 breaks can be covered, but it seems obvious to me that its unnecessarily risky to draw trumps.
Since I'm not in a hurry to draw trumps, I may as well try to cash QC in case the suit is 4-3.
Hence, I tried to win the Q. RHO ruffed small, and I overruffed with the 7.
It is all the more imperative now to not draw trumps. Dummy now has a club loser which I haven't ruffed. All the more reason to not cash AK spade in a hurry. Accordingly,I unblocked the diamond King, and play a spade to the Ace.
Since I've not yet ruffed the club loser, I can't cash KS. Accordingly, I tried to cash AQD. If everyone follows to the AQD am in great shape. Pitch 2 hearts, Ace of H, H ruff,club ruff with the KS and ruff heart again and score one of JT spade.
However, LHO ruffs the QD with the QS. What to pitch in dummy?
It is tempting to throw the club loser away, but this is clearly a losing proposition. If you do so, then LHO can switch to heart if he's missing the king, and you'll be stuck with a heart loser.
Therefore, to continue to threaten to ruff out the club loser, it is proper to pitch the heart in dummy.
LHO now is forced to lead spade. Otherwise, you can ruff the club with the spade King and score the rest of dummy's trumps by pulling trumps, getting to dummy with a H ruff.
So LHO leads spade, removing your club ruff.
What is the recovery plan?
Dummy:
S:JTx
H:Q
C:5
Hand:
S:-
H:A98
D:54
The above end position is what I'm most interested in. I would demand that all my partners find the winning play in this end position. There's no point in playing the game if one does not, even by sheer accident, stumble into the only play available that could win. And, that play, even though it is not apparent to the naked eye, gives a 100% guarantee to make the 10th trick.
The 2 options available are:
Option 1:Ace of heart, heart ruff. You're stuck on dummy, and are 100% guaranteed to go down 1. The best you can do is play off trumps and hope for a blunder.
Option 2: leave hearts alone, ruff a diamond. Play off dummy's trumps. as with Option 1.
With 2 cards to go in dummy,when the last trump is led:
RHO has to keep the good diamond, and has to let go of a heart. Now you can safely pitch the diamond, keeping A9H.
LHO likewise sees the club threat in dummy, and is forced to keep the high club and let go of a heart.
With 2 cards to go, NEITHER opponent can keep 2 hearts. Queen of heart to the Ace will bring down ALL missing hearts.
This play works even if BOTH opponents were dealt the KJH. Because neither could keep 2 hearts in the end position: a textbook double squeeze.
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